Although the forecasts for the low which has threatened the top boats for a few days now are now showing a little more manageable conditions, winds are still going to be more than 40kts with big seas. But increasingly it seems like If Dalin and Simon can outrun the worst of the system and not be swallowed by it, they might pull off a minor coup and gain somewhere around 200 miles on the chasing peloton who are now well to their northwest.
"The depression is today less strong than what was still being forecast yesterday but it will nevertheless generate winds of more than 50 knots and up to seven metre waves", analysed Christian Dumard, weather consultant for the race, this morning.
"The whole question is whether they will succeed in going fast in very strong winds or whether they will be caught by the light wind coming up behind" explained Dumard. The answer will probably not be known before Saturday when Dalin and Simon converge back to the north, likely to be quite far ahead of third placed Yoann Richomme (PAPREC ARKÉA) and the skippers lined up behind him including Briton Sam Goodchild in seventh on VULNERABLE.
Richer or poorer, better or worse?
Richomme looked tired this morning when he spoke to the Vendée Live show. He moved north away from the depression yesterday and might be regretting his choice. “At the time the decision was easy but now it's going round in my head a bit. The system is evolving and I can't figure out what to think of the South option. I have the impression that Charlie and Seb aren't going to do so badly in the end. The scenario is starting to turn out rather well for them. The depression is filling in, it's diminishing a lot and they could get a nice gain." Explained Richomme.
The peloton in the north are not going to be spared, they will still get winds of 30-35 kts at times. Paul Meilhat in ninth on Biotherm reported seeing 50kts in the front last night.
“At the moment a part of the big challenge for them is not being able to remain in any kind of rhythm, a few knots of wind here are there makes such a big difference to the speed and power of these boats and so they are constantly having to work at it. I know how hard these boats are fully crewed so these guys deserve so much respect.” Double winner of The Ocean Race Simon Fisher highlighted on today’s Vendée LIVE! show.
Into the fire
Those just coming into the Indian Ocean, passing Cape Agulhas today, are not going to be spared. They will immediately connect with their first low in the coming hours and whilst their own monster does not have the same ferocity as the one the top group are dealing with, they will still enjoy a rude reminder that the Southern Oceans mean business and the easy life of the South Atlantic is over.
And of course technical problems are never far away. Germany’s Boris Herrmann (Malizia-Seaexplorer) in 12th has dropped out the back of the low pressure as did Clarisse Crémer (L’Occitaine en Provence) earlier today. The risk for them as they languish in lighter airs are the group advancing fast on the next low pressure wave. And Herrmann had to stop and slow yesterday and overnight to repair an issue with his port foil ram pin. He repaired the system only for it to break again. He had to retrieve the pieces from the bowels of the boat before being able to fix the foil bearing at a fixed rake.”
