The Last Waltz, One final big storm for the next group

But for all that, Goodchild is determined to retain fourth he will not compromise on the low risk, safety first attack which has served him so well all the way round the world so far, a strategy which has been augmented by excellent tactical choices in key areas – notably on the descent of the Atlantic when he led the race - and more recently at Cab Frio on the climb up the South Atlantic where he got  up to fourth with some smart choices.

Now, with about 1500 miles to the finish Goodchild said today,

“I have had a hard enough time looking to see what I should do and so I have not really looked to see what the others might do. That is part of the race I don’t want to get dragged into, racing to the end, I want to just keep it safe and sail sensibly and not take any risks to try and make things happen. If the others catch up then so be it, and if we can stay ahead then great. 
I can’t see Jeremie now he bore away changing sails I changed to the FR0 earlier than him and so he caught me up. He will lose again. But he was a mile behind me an hour ago.” 

After spending a lot of yesterday checking his boat and making sure he and it are in the best possible shape for the big last push. He was already into brisker winds this afternoon, having emerged out of a high pressure ridge of light breeze, 

“I had a big day yesterday and so I am little bit tired and at night the wind has built from five knots to 25 knots so I have gone up through the sail wardrobe a little bit, I have stacked up and got everything sorted for the storm so it has been a busy 24 hours. On the forecast we are seeing 45kts on the weather file and over 50 so it is fairly short lived but it is going to be fairly wild I think and quite a big sea state, 7 metre waves on the weather files There is an option to go south to get around it into a little less wind and a little less sea state but then you will end up with a bit of upwind in 30 and 35kts and you really don’t want that. We are kind of between a rock and hard place. So I will go this way and be careful. 
I saw 50-55 at the beginning of the Pacific and I had three reefs and storm jib and so I have been through that.” 
 

low on options 

The strategic options are a limited, as Nico Lunven (HOLCIM PRB) who is poised two places behind Goodchild, notes, “The situation is extremely complicated, because there are not many escape routes. By making a few adjustments, I could limit the winds to 40-45 knots, but this will be with short seas of 7 to 8 metres, which is not great. If I choose to head east, towards Madeira, I will find myself tacking close-hauled in 35-40 knots, which is not ideal either. And if I slow down, I will be caught up by the next depression coming up behind, in the Bay of Biscay. In short, we are facing a problem without a real solution. 

Some routes see a small advantage to Sam Goodchild and Jérémie at the head of the group, these two skippers are best placed to try to get in past the centre of the depression. The key question, then, is how far they will be prepared to push the boundaries: will they decide to face the strongest winds and then benefit from the best route to towards the finish?

Pushing Ferré hard….

For his part, Benjamin Ferré, the skipper of Monnoyeur – Duo for a Job, is taking a determined approach despite the technical hazards that have challenged him recently. After overcoming a new hook problem yesterday he is still side by side with Tanguy Le Turquais (Lazaire) in the battle for supremacy among the daggerboard boats. 

“In the last few hours, I managed to make up my 15-mile deficit on Tanguy (Le Turquais) and that’s good news. Today, we’re sailing side by side. So close that if I shout, he can hear me!”, said the sailor, who nevertheless only has one spare hook left, “It’s always a bit strange to sail with a sort of sword of Damocles hanging over your head. The slightest noise stresses me out,” he admitted. Nevertheless, he’s not sparing any effort in his fight for first place  in this group.